Getting a handle on how the national economy is going to effect construction and real estate for the remainder of 2009 has become less difficult since the second quarter played out. That doesn't mean that forecasts (this one included) still won't miss the mark, but the course of the macro economy finally seems to have some definition, which mean the course of the construction market will be more predictable hereafter.

May's economic numbers offer the most recent total picture we have to judge the health of the overall economy, but virtually all indicators that have turned positive (or less negative), we can look first at the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), a measurement of ten indicators (including building permits) which tend to predict future economic direction. The LEI turned sharply positive after March, and is up 1.2%for the past six months, the first such six month climb in two years. Another key positive trend is home sales, which have been slightly positive for both new and existing homes since January. While not a big upward move, the positive trend, accompanied by low housing starts, is beginning to erode the excess inventory of unsold houses. Further good news on housing is that the first two national builders to report quarterly earnings, KB Homes and Lennar, touted significant increases in orders in May.